New Data Reveals Overwhelming Majority of US States Are Conservative

Morning Consult recently released new polling data examining how all 50 states identify ideologically — either conservative, liberal, or moderate. According to the survey, 38 of the 50 states self-identified as conservative, while only 12 identified as liberal.

What’s surprising is that this includes several traditionally blue states such as Minnesota, New Jersey, Maine, and New Hampshire. Even some of the states that still identified as liberal — or barely liberal — such as Illinois and New Mexico, did so only by narrow margins.

This begs the question: if a majority of states identify as conservative, why don’t Republicans hold more Senate seats? Why have Democrats been favored in the popular vote for most of the last 30 years? And why do states that self-identify as conservative still often vote for Democrats?

Common Sense vs. Political Identity

One explanation is that many Americans still hold traditional values that are often associated with conservatism — but those values don’t necessarily determine how they vote.

For instance, the vast majority of Americans believe in a strong family unit, good schools, and safe communities. Yet most people don’t see those beliefs as inherently political. They view them as common sense, even though such values are typically associated with conservative ideology.

The Role of Moderates

The biggest factor that explains why so many states identify as conservative, even if they often vote Democratic, is that moderates tend to break toward the Democratic Party.

Take New Jersey, for example:

• 32% identify as conservative
• 30% identify as liberal
• 30% identify as moderate

So why does New Jersey remain solidly Democratic? Because moderates traditionally lean Democratic, tipping the balance even in states where conservatives slightly outnumber liberals.

What the Data Suggests

1. Moderate voters favor Democrats

• A Rasmussen generic ballot poll showed that among moderate voters, 49% said they would vote for Democrats versus 36% for Republicans.
• Another Rasmussen poll (“Generic Congressional Ballot – May 2022”) found moderates favoring Democrats 57% to 27%.

2. Independent and moderate‐leaning voters often lean Democratic (or Democratic‐leaners)

• A Pew Research Center report on “leaned party identification and ideology” among registered voters found that a significant share of voters who are moderate or even conservative in ideology still align or lean toward the Democratic Party. About one-quarter of voters associate with the Democratic Party and describe their views as either conservative or moderate.
• From “Are Independents Showing Us a Path Away from Political Polarization?”: Moderate independents make up roughly 18% of the electorate, and among them, 49% voted a straight Democratic ticket, compared to 34% for Republicans.

Taken together, the data shows that while America may lean conservative in identity, Democrats have a consistent advantage among the moderate and independent voters who often decide elections.

Why Moderates Break for Democrats

Why moderates tend to break toward Democrats remains somewhat unclear. It could be that the strong evangelical influence in conservative politics turns off less religious moderates. Or it could be that Donald Trump’s combative style alienates voters who prefer a calmer tone in politics.

There is data that suggest while many Americans may identify as being more culturally conservative, many of them, including moderates, prefer liberal policies.

Data for Progress in 2024 found that among “swing voters” (“moderate” on the ideology scale), many favored liberal-leaning positions on both economic and social issues, which suggests their policy preferences tilt in ways more aligned with the Democratic Party in those domains.

Whatever the reason, the data still offers encouraging news for Republicans. The fact that a clear majority of states identify as conservative suggests that places like New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota could eventually become competitive — or even true swing states — if the Republican Party invests the right resources and messaging.

Full breakdown of all 50 states below.