GOP Gains Momentum in New Jersey and Virginia as Governor’s Races Tighten

Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia appear to be gaining real momentum as the governor’s races head into the final stretch.

New polling from Insider Advantage and Trafalgar Group—two of the most accurate firms in recent election cycles—shows both contests in a statistical dead heat.

In New Jersey, the Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by just one point, 45.4% to 44.3%. Meanwhile in Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a narrow two-point edge over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, 47.5% to 45.3%.

Republicans now look like the outright favorites in the Virginia Attorney General race, as Jay Jones has refused to offer a meaningful apology for his comments. With Democrats seemingly unwilling to replace him, the Republican candidate is now favored to win in the betting markets and is leading in several polls.

A Fox News poll in New Jersey found Sherrill ahead by five points, but that still represents a three-point improvement for Ciattarelli compared to previous surveys. The overall trend suggests that Republicans are closing the gap in both traditionally blue states.

So, what’s driving the shift?

In Virginia, Democrats have been dealing with a damaging controversy after the state’s attorney general candidate was caught texting people bragging about wanting to “kill” his Republican opponents. Spanberger has not clearly condemned the comments, and many voters may be growing uneasy with what they see as an increasingly radical tone from Democratic leaders.

In New Jersey, Sherrill has struggled to connect with voters. With the state facing soaring energy costs and affordability concerns, her campaign has focused heavily on attacking Trump—an approach that may no longer resonate. New Jersey isn’t as reliably blue as it once was, and voters appear to be more concerned about local issues than partisan rhetoric.

Both New Jersey and Virginia were won by Vice President Harris in 2020 by about 5–6 points, so Democratic victories this year wouldn’t be surprising. However, the fact that these races are competitive at all could signal something bigger.

If Republicans manage to win one—or even both—of these contests, it would be a clear sign that the country is warming to Trump’s leadership and Republican governance heading into 2026.

This tightening comes as President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains steady nationwide. A recent Emerson College poll shows Trump at 45% approval to 48% disapproval, while a new RMG Research survey recorded his highest rating yet—52% approval.

There was an outlier poll showing Trump’s approval in the 30s, like today’s AP-NORC survey. But there should be much skepticism about this poll.

If the polls showing Trump’s approval rating in the 30s were truly accurate, we wouldn’t consistently see generic ballot tests between Republicans and Democrats as close as they are heading into 2026.

A new CNBC poll released today shows Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot by just one point—a four-point improvement for Republicans since August. That same poll underscores the growing competitiveness of the political landscape.

It’s also worth remembering that back in 2017, many polls predicted a major Democratic wave in the 2018 midterms, with Democrats leading by 7–8 points on the generic ballot. We’re seeing nothing like that today.

So, the idea that Trump’s approval is truly in the 30s, as one recent poll suggests, simply doesn’t add up.

The first real test for 2026—and the first meaningful clue about Trump’s current popularity—will come this November, when voters in New Jersey and Virginia head to the polls.