Can Republicans Win The New Jersey Governors Race?

One of the first real tests of how the country views the Trump administration will take place in about a month with the New Jersey governor’s race. Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli has performed remarkably well in recent polling, with an Emerson College survey showing him in a statistical tie with Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the congresswoman representing New Jersey’s 11th District.

Ciattarelli, who previously ran for governor in 2021, lost that race by only three points — a surprisingly close margin for a Republican in deep-blue New Jersey. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump also made unexpected gains, losing New Jersey by fewer than six points — a double-digit improvement from his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. These results suggest a clear upward trend for Republicans in the state.

Still, the key question remains: what would it take for Republicans to actually win the governor’s race this year? Comparing Trump’s 2024 performance to Ciattarelli’s 2021 showing reveals that winning statewide remains a steep uphill climb.

There’s no question Ciattarelli has momentum heading into the final stretch. He’s received crossover endorsements from several Democrats, seen rising poll numbers, and even benefited from reports — including one from Axios — that some Democrats fear the race could slip away.

However, the challenge for Republicans becomes clearer when you dig into the data. Ciattarelli’s strong 2021 performance stemmed largely from his success in wealthier, suburban counties — areas where Trump struggled in 2020. According to The New Jersey Globe, Ciattarelli won 51 of the 53 municipalities that had voted for Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020.

In Monmouth County, a relatively affluent and suburban area, Ciattarelli won by about 18 points in 2021, while Trump carried it by only 2.8 points in 2020. This pattern repeated across the state, as Ciattarelli significantly outperformed Trump in whiter, wealthier suburbs — a major reason the 2021 race was competitive.

By contrast, Trump’s 2024 improvement didn’t come from those suburban strongholds. Instead, his gains were concentrated in more working-class, diverse areas. Take Passaic County, a more working class, heavily Hispanic county: Ciattarelli lost it by roughly 24 points in 2021, yet Trump managed to flip it in 2024, winning by about three points.

What This Implies for Ciattarelli in 2025

• Ciattarelli’s 2021 strategy of leaning into wealthier suburbs and flipping formerly Trump-to-Biden municipalities worked to shrink the margin — but it wasn’t enough to close to zero.
• In 2024, the partisan swing in New Jersey came not via the same suburban route, but via gains in working-class and more diverse areas.
• For Ciattarelli to win, he must replicate or outdo Trump’s 2024 inroads into those working- and middle-class constituencies and preserve or regain strength in affluent suburbs.

These diverging patterns highlight a central challenge for Republicans in New Jersey: Trump’s growing strength among working-class and minority voters hasn’t been withought losses from suburban support needed to win statewide.

For Ciattarelli, bridging that gap — and holding onto both wings of the new GOP coalition — may ultimately determine whether he can make history in November.

If you’re interested in hearing more about the New Jersey Governor’s race, check our podcast breaking it down here