2025 Elections Preview & Predictions

This upcoming Tuesday, several major state elections will take place in New Jersey, New York, and Virginia.

Many political analysts are calling this the first real test of the Trump administration’s popularity — and the first opportunity to see whether Democrats can recover from their devastating defeat in 2024.

Let’s break down the likely results in each of the key races — and what those outcomes could mean for both the Trump administration and Democrats heading into 2026.

VIRGINIA

In Virginia, there are three key statewide races this year. Because Virginia governors can only serve one consecutive term, Glenn Youngkin is not on the ballot.

Early-voting data shows Republicans performing better than they did in 2021, when Youngkin won — but slightly worse than their numbers in the 2024 presidential election.

Given that more Republicans are now voting early than in 2021 (partly due to post-COVID habits), the fact that GOP early vote totals are up doesn’t necessarily signal broader momentum.

Because Virginia is a state heavily affected by federal government shutdowns and proximity to D.C., and given that Harris won it by six points, you’d expect Democrats to win each statewide race by at least five points or more.

However, the Attorney General’s race has taken an unusual turn. Democrat Jay Jones was caught on record fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents — an incident that dramatically reduced his poll numbers. As a result, Republican Jason Miyares is now the favorite in that race.

Historically, all three statewide Virginia races (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General) tend to track closely together. But because of the controversy surrounding Jones, he is by far the most likely Democrat to lose.

Right now, most polls have the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger up by double digits. We think that margin may narrow: based on early-voting data, we expect Spanberger to win by 7–8 points.

The Lieutenant Governor race will likely follow closely, with the Democrat winning by about 6 points, while Miyares could win the Attorney General race by 3–4 points.

NEW YORK

In New York City, the outcome of the mayor’s race is not really in doubt. Zoran Mamdani is almost certain to win the New York City mayoral race.

Right-wing and pro-Israel media have recently suggested that Andrew Cuomo might be gaining late momentum, but there’s no real data to back that up. Betting markets and polls alike show Mamdani as a heavy favorite, with Cuomo trailing by double digits.

The real question is whether Mamdani will exceed 50% of the vote. Early-voting numbers — especially higher turnout among seniors — suggest he may struggle too as seniors are leaning towards Cuomo.

We expect Mamdani to finish around 47%, while Cuomo is more likely to place third than he is first.

CALIFORNIA

Governor Gavin Newsom’s gamble to push through redistricting in California looks likely to pay off.

As someone living in California, I can confirm that the Prop 50 ads have been relentless — framing a “yes” vote as an anti-Trump statement. In a state Trump lost by more than 20 points, that’s been an effective strategy.

Republicans such as former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have tried urging a “no” vote, but those efforts appear futile.

We expect YES’s side to win with over 60% of the vote.

NEW JERSEY

This race has the potential to be the closest of the night — and, alongside Virginia’s Attorney General race, it’s the most likely contest for Republicans to flip.

The race is between Mikie Sherrill (Democrat) and Jack Ciattarelli (Republican).

Polling has been inconsistent. Some surveys show Sherrill leading by as much as 7–8 points, while other reputable polls show a virtual tie.

Jack Ciattarelli improved on Trump’s 2020 performance in New Jersey during his 2021 gubernatorial run by appealing to upper-income suburban white voters.

Trump himself made gains in 2024 among working-class minorities, especially in Hispanic-heavy precincts and counties.

For Ciattarelli to win statewide, he’ll need to maintain his strength with affluent suburban voters while also replicating Trump’s inroads with working-class minority voters — a tough balance to achieve.

Given that Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans in early in-person voting, it’s unlikely that Jack can close the gap.

If Republicans were really so enthusiastic, they would not be trailing in the in person early voting that is not a good sign for Republicans in New Jersey.

The race should be close, but we expect the Democrat to win by about three points.

LIKELY FALLOUT

Democrats will likely use the results of these elections as proof that Americans are rejecting the Trump administration.

They are likely to win in all the key races except for the Attorney General’s race in Virginia, which comes with an obvious caveat due to the controversy surrounding Jay Jones.

However, if these margins play out as expected, Democrats celebrating too loudly might miss the bigger picture.

New Jersey and Virginia are both states that Harris won by roughly 5–6 points. If Democrats only match those margins — or win by slightly less — that would signal that the country hasn’t shifted noticeably toward them since 2024.

Remember: New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City are all Democratic-leaning areas. Democratic victories should always be expected in those places.

However, it should be noted that even when Virginia was a red state, the winner of the governors race in a non-election year has generally been predictive of the midterm term the following year.

So if the Democrats win the governors race easily, that could be a bad sign for Republicans for the 2026 midterms

The real question is the margins. And if these predicted margins hold, the Trump administration will actually be in relatively good shape heading into the midterms.